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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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